Methodology
Baseload Index is an AI infrastructure event monitor. It watches a hand-curated watchlist of 53 US-listed companies across 10 physical-layer segments of the AI buildout, and at launch it will report, each morning, which of them had a real event. This page states what counts as one, where it comes from, and what the score does and does not mean.
What counts as an event
An event is a dated, company-specific development with a published source. All three parts are load-bearing: if it carries no date, is not tied to one company, or was not published anywhere, it does not enter the record.
The categories tracked are order wins, capex guidance changes, backlog numbers, capacity announcements, partnerships, earnings with physical-layer relevance, regulatory developments, and notable analyst moves.
- Order win
- Capex guide
- Backlog
- Capacity
- Partnership
- Earnings
- Regulatory
- Analyst
Not everything material names one company. Policy moves, tariffs and industry-wide numbers are tracked separately, as standing physical-layer indicators, rather than being forced onto a single ticker.
Two kinds of signal
Extracted daily from published news, filings and company announcements. Each one carries a direction, a strength, a one-line rationale and a link to its source.
Mechanical, computed from daily closes: moving-average crosses, 52-week highs, volume spikes, drawdowns.
Both kinds expire from the active list: after its window, a signal stops counting toward the score. Expiry is about what is current, not deletion. The events behind the signals stay in the record, and confirmed guidance and backlog revisions are kept permanently.
Extraction and review
Extraction is automated. At launch the scan will run each morning, and one rule on it is hard either way: nothing enters the record without a published source behind it.
Guidance and backlog revisions get one further step. Those are the numbers most easily misread from a headline, so I confirm them by hand before they enter the record.
What the score is
A company's score summarises its active signals: bullish activity pushes it up, bearish activity pulls it down, and stronger signals move it further. That is all of it.
It is a sorting heuristic: a way of putting the companies with the most, and the strongest, recent activity at the top of a list. It is not a model, not a forecast and not a recommendation.
Cadence
Planned cadence: daily. The record will be published each morning, US Eastern Time.
Data sources
These are the classes of source the scan reads. It is not a claim to have read everything published about a company.
- SEC filings and exchange announcements
- Company investor-relations releases and earnings materials
- Established published reporting
The classes are not equal. Filings, exchange announcements and investor-relations materials take precedence for the numbers that become permanent history: guidance, backlog, capacity. Established reporting can surface an event first, but a secondary report never silently replaces the canonical source behind it.
Prices will come from an end-of-day feed: daily closes, not intraday. And every event signal links the source it came from, so any single item can be checked against the original rather than taken on trust.
About
Baseload Index is built and run by one person, Moncy. The watchlist, the rules on this page and the code behind them are all mine, and access requests come to me directly.
Corrections, questions and arguments with the methodology are welcome at moncy@baseloadindex.com, or at @ironheart122 on X.
Baseload Index is in private beta. Request access from the front page.
Everything above is descriptive: a record of what was published and how prices moved. None of it is investment advice.